That regularity, however
complicated, which reason still demands, and expects even from the
weather, is not found to be so simple as our rules and signs of the
weather indicate; for the operation of these innumerable causes is
so complicated, that the repetition of similar phenomena or similar
combinations of causes, to any great extent, is the most improbable
of events. Perhaps the meteorologist will ultimately find that
Nature has succeeded, in what seems, indeed, to be her aim, in
completely retracing her steps, and reducing the operation of that
simple and regular system of causes, which she brought out of chaos,
back to a confusion of detail, from which all law and regularity are
obliterated.
Meteorological observations have, however, determined many regular
and constant causes and a few regular phenomena. The method pursued
in these investigations is, for the most part, the elimination, by
general averages, of limited and temporary changes in the elements
of the weather, and the determination of those changes which depend
upon the constant influences of locality, of season, and of constant
or slowly varying causes. These constant influences constitute the
climate; and the study of climates is thus the first step towards
the solution of the problem of the weather. Climates, in their
changes and distribution, are very important elements in the
determination of the movements of the weather, and are to the
meteorologist what the elements of the planetary orbits are to the
astronomer; but, unlike planetary perturbations, the weather makes
the most reckless excursions from its averages, and obscures them by
a most inconsequent and incalculable fickleness.
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